The case for population reform
Australia to 2050: future challenges, projected that Australia’s population will reach 35.9 million by 2050. While the report recognises the pressure this will place on infrastructure, services and the environment, it also speaks of the “benefits” this growth will provide in managing the pressures of an ageing population by providing the skills and innovation needed to underpin continued economic growth. It is my view, however, that this population projection for Australia is too high and unsustainable.
If this projected growth is allowed to happen it will have devastating effects on our ability to tackle climate change and protect our unique wildlife and ecosystems, along with exacerbating the issues of overcrowded cities, transport congestion, declining water supplies and housing affordability. The impacts of runaway population growth are already being felt right around Australia. They are being felt particularly by Australia’s wildlife. Some 30% of Australia’s 760 bird species are under threat. Such Australian icons as the emu, lyrebird, and kookaburra have undergone dramatic declines.
Escalating population growth will mean Melbourne will almost double and reach seven million people, while Sydney will become a city of seven million people and Brisbane will double to four million. Metropole Property Investment Strategists Research have forecast that median house prices will be well over $1 million in every capital city at the end of this new decade, and in many cases considerably more. John Edwards, an economist with HSBC, has noted that Australia’s high level of migration is going to keep upward pressure on house prices. It is a similar situation for rent. The General Manager of Australian Property Monitors, Michael McNamara, has said the shortage of rental properties will continue to worsen because of rising migration.
I am of the strong belief that Australia must be moving to stabilise its population in order to secure its social, environmental and economic future. I have released a 14 point Population Reform Paper plan to stabilise Australia’s population at 26 million by 2050. My Population Reform Paper recommends reducing our annual migration intake to 70,000 per annum, reducing our skilled migrant intake to 25,000 per year, abolishing the baby bonus, restricting the Family Tax Benefit for third and subsequent children, using the money saved from revising these payments to increase university and TAFE places for young Australians, restricting subclass 457 temporary entry permits, requiring overseas students to return to their country of origin before applying for permanent residence, increasing our foreign aid budget to 0.7% of GDP, and increasing our refugee intake from 13,750 to 20,000.
Migration Rate
Australia’s population has been skyrocketing in recent years, and the principal reason for this is the dramatic increase in our migration rate. Previous predictions and projections about Australia’s population have turned out to be gross underestimates. Back in 1984, the World Bank’s population projection for the year 2100 was 21 million. A decade ago, forecasters were predicting we would not hit the 22 million mark until 2040. We are already at 22 million! To bring the runaway population train back under control we need to return to a net overseas migration number more in keeping with previous practice. Net overseas migration in 2008-09 was 285,000. I believe this should be reduced to 70,000. If we cut net overseas migration to 70,000, and the fertility rate was maintained at 1.8, according to Professor Bob Birrell of Monash University’s Centre for Urban and Social Research, the population would reach 26 million by the year 2050 and stabilise at about this level for the rest of the century.
A net overseas migration rate of 70,000 is not inconsistent with Australia’s obligation to be a compassionate international citizen, nor is it inconsistent with a humanitarian approach to allowing family reunion for present Australian citizens. The present number of refugees and asylum seekers taken by Australia is 13,750. It has been at the 12,000 – 13,000 level for many years. It could be increased to 20,000, an increase of over 45%, within the context of a large cut to the overall migration program. Nor is a generous family reunion program inconsistent with population stabilisation. The family reunion program stood at 49,870 in 2007-08 and 56,366 in 2008-09. A figure of 50,000 could be retained.
What is incompatible with population reform is our skilled migration program. In 1995-96 it was 24,100. It had risen to 114,777 by 2008-09 –four to five times what it used to be. It should be cut back to 25,000. Claims that we need these skilled migration numbers in order to mitigate a skills shortage as we recover economically, and address an ageing population misses the solution in our own backyard. There were 100,000 young Australians aged between 15-24 who dropped out of the labour force last year.
Fertility Rate
In 2004 the Howard government introduced the “baby bonus” to encourage women to have more children. This payment is contradictory to the objective of stabilising Australia’s population. Its present cost to the revenue is $1.4 billion in 2009-10. The Family Payments Budget for 2009-10 is $17.4 billion. It is one of the Federal Government’s largest and most complex expenditure programs. Together with Large Family Supplement, I would propose that Family Tax Benefit A for third and subsequent children be restricted to those presently receiving it. The combined annual budgetary savings from cutting out the Baby Bonus, Large Family Supplement, and Family Tax Benefit A for third and subsequent children would be approximately $3 billion.
This saving could be used to boost the levels of university and vocational education funding in Australia. The Bradley Review of Australian Higher Education indicated we could achieve a demand-driven entitlement system for domestic higher education students, where public funding will be provided for each undergraduate student eligible for a university place, at a cost of $1,130 million over 4 years. The Budget Papers have allowed $491 million from 2009-10 to 2012-13 towards this objective. Finding the extra $639 million and funding the extra places would be money well spent.
Temporary Visas
Temporary entry permits to Australia in 1995-96 were 3.1 million. By 2007-08 they had reached 4.2 million. Temporary entry work visas are a tool for undermining the wages and conditions of Australian workers, and a recipe for exploiting overseas ones. The Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union has uncovered dreadful examples of the use of sham contractors who are underpaid or not paid at all, and threatened with deportation if they complain or seek to enforce their rights. Subclass 457 work visas have no worthwhile role to play, except in very limited situations. They should be restricted to areas of clear need, such as the medical and health occupations and professional engineering occupations.
Overseas students should be required to return to their country of origin once they have completed their course. Since the Howard Government changed the rules in 2001 to allow students to apply for permanent residence onshore, overseas student numbers have skyrocketed from 204,000 to over 467,000 in just seven years. Rorts and scams have crept into the program and damaged Australia’s international education reputation. Decoupling the link with permanent residence will put the focus back on education where it belongs, restore Australia’s international education reputation, and probably also reduce temporary entry numbers.
A Better International Citizen
In 1970 the United Nations General Assembly adopted an international aid target of 0.7% of each country’s gross domestic product. Australia has committed to 0.5% by 2015. Make Poverty History and Micah Challenge produced a report in 2008 proposing a lift from $3.8 billion in 2009-10 (0.35%) to $9.2 billion (0.7%) by 2015-16. The benefits from achieving this would be great indeed. Australia could hold its head up high in the international community, and encourage other developed nations to also meet the target. The extra money would help us meet the Millennium Development Goals. Most importantly, it could help tackle grinding poverty and reduce the incidence of terrorism, drugs and boat people.
Conclusion
Opinion poll evidence has indicated that 60% of Australians believe that a population of 35 million by 2050 is too many. It is time for the Australian Government and policy makers to take steps to stabilise the nation’s population. And it is time people and communities stood up and demanded better of their policy makers than the she’ll be right” growth fetish which is making an utter mockery of our obligation to give to our children a nation in as good a condition as the one our parents gave to us.
Kelvin Thomson, MP, a former member of the Victorian Parliament as the Member for Pascoe Vale, was elected to the Federal Parliament as the Member for Wills in 1996. From 1998 to March 2007 he served in a range of Shadow Ministries, including Assistant Treasurer, Environment and Heritage, Regional Development, Roads and Housing, Public Accountability, Human Services and Attorney General. in November 2007 he was re-elected to the Federal Parliament as Member for Wills and chairs Parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Treaties.
Source: Australian Options, Issue 60, Autumn 2010, pp. 11-12.